This is a sequence of animations broken into four parts on the Gambler's Fallacy.
- Part 1 of 4: A drawing of three individuals at a roulette table is shown.
- The on-screen text says "Josh is in a casino watching people play roulette. The 38 slots in the roulette wheel include 18 black numbers, 18 red numbers, and 2 green numbers. Hence, on any spin, the probability of red or black is slightly less than 50%, or .474 to be exact. Josh notes that the ball has landed on red seven times in a row! He figures that black is long overdue and bets heavily on black. Do you think Josh's reasoning is sound? Click on one of the options to indicate whether he has made a good bet."
- Part 2 of 4: A drawing of three individuals at a roulette table is shown. After, images of different slots from the roulette table are shown.
- The on-screen text says "No, Josh's reasoning is flawed. His thinking illustrates the gambler's fallacy -- the belief that the odds of a chance event increase if the event has not occurred recently. People believe that a random process must be self-correcting. Although this is true in the long run, this principle does not apply to individual, independent events."
- Part 3 of 4: An animation of a spinning roulette wheel is shown. Later in the animation, the three individuals at the roulette table are shown again.
- The on-screen text says "A roulette wheel does not remember recent results and adjust for them. Each spin of the wheel is an independent event. The probability of black on each spin remains at .474, even if red comes up 100 times in a row! The gambler’s fallacy reflects the pervasive influence of the representativeness heuristic."
- Part 4 of 4: A drawing of three individuals at a roulette table is shown. After, a string of roulette tables are shown and then the screen returns to the previous image of the individuals at the roulette table.
- The on-screen text says "In betting on black, Josh is predicting that future results will be more representative of a random process. This logic can be used to estimate the probability of black across a string of spins. But it doesn’t apply to a specific spin of the roulette wheel."